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Winnebago Industries Inc. stock fell today (Oct. 2) on Wall Street after an analyst downgraded shares on concerns the nation’s top motorhome maker will struggle to earn money next year as the entire sector experiences a comparatively slow recovery.

Baird analyst Craig R. Kennison downgraded the shares to “Underperform” from “Neutral,” saying the recovery in motorhomes has lagged that of companies that make towable recreational vehicles, according to Associated Press.

Also, motorhome manufacturing capacity has not fallen as the analyst had expected, and Forest City, Iowa-based Winnebago will struggle to achieve profitability in fiscal 2010.

For the fiscal 2009 fourth quarter, which Winnebago reports Oct. 15, Kennison forecast a loss of $7 million to $8 million on revenue of about $65 million.

Longer term, the analyst is more sanguine about the company’s prospects, noting that dealer inventories are low and retail is poised for recovery.

Kennison has an $11 price target on shares of the company, which holds a 19% share of the nation’s $3 billion motorhome market.

In morning trading the stock fell $1 a share, or 7.5%, to $13.32.