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Baird logoEditor’s Note: Robert W. Baird & Co. tracks the RV industry for investors and issued this client update following release Monday of the November motorized retail sales results by Statistical Surveys Inc.

Action

Motorhome retail declines slow in November. Class A registrations decreased 13% while Class C registrations increased 6%. Consistent with our recent dealer checks, motorhome demand remains down but declines are beginning to moderate (note that November is part of the seasonally less significant winter selling season). Conditions remain difficult, but we expect a robust wholesale recovery as demand stabilizes and dealers replenish inventory at a more normal rate.

Summary

Motorhome registrations fell 7%. Class A registrations fell 13% to 637 units, while Class C registrations increased 6% to 401 units on the easiest retail comparisons of the year.

Gas/Diesel. Class A-Diesel registrations increased 3% and Class A-Gas registrations fell 29% as diesel units continue to outperform gas models.

Retail SAAR. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of motorhome retail registrations for November was 16.0K units, down from 20.0K units in October.

Dealer inventories. Shipments are beginning to come into line with retail, indicating dealers are beginning to stock at closer to a 1:1 rate. We believe the destocking trend has run its course and expect more normal replenishment rates going forward, driving a robust wholesale recovery.