U.S. light-vehicle sales are projected to fall for the fifth straight month in May as the industry limps into the usually robust summer selling season.

Estimates from four forecasters call for declines of 2.1 percent to 3.2 percent from May 2018. Most automakers are scheduled to report May results on Monday.

The seasonally adjusted, annualized selling rate is projected to range from 16.9 million to 17.0 million, in line with full-year estimates for sales to come in below 17 million for the first time since 2014.

May 2018 was a particularly strong month for the industry with sales of 1.592 million and a SAAR of 17.26 million.

“It’s going to be an up-and-down year,” Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds’ manager of industry analysis, said in a statement. “Automakers are still figuring out how to balance supply with declining demand, but incentive budgets aren’t big enough for dealers to offer deep discounts on a consistent basis. And when those bargains go away, so do the shoppers.”

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